ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is 
maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the 
way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the 
circulation.  There remains a large spread in the satellite 
intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt.  In 
addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt 
north of the center.  Based on a compromise of all of this data, the 
initial intensity is held at 60 kt.
 
Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a
progressively drier and more stable air mass.  These conditions
should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all
of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about
60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C.  The NHC 
intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus 
models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days.
 
Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue
moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level
ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States.  Beyond
that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow
post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade
winds.  The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and
the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN