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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020
 
The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface 
temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a 
nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the 
issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the 
southwest of the low-level center.  However, with no appreciable 
change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25 
kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data.  The 
depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24 
hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection.  The 
updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a 
remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours.  Another 
scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it 
opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model 
guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is 
more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models.  
Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a 
higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast 
ending up a bit north of the previous forecast.  The depression 
and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the 
west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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