ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 19 2020 The small low pressure are that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking for the past couple of days has finally developed enough persistent organized deep convection for the system to classified as Tropical Depression Seven-E. An earlier burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C helped to spin up the low-level wind field and cause the center to become better defined based on a 0529 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. The aforementioned scatterometer data showed surface winds of 29-30 kt in the western semicircle, which is the basis for the 30-kt initial intensity. This intensity is also supported by 06Z Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 310/10 kt based on conventional, microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12 hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered northwestward to west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next day or so due to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the depression. By 24-36 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into a shallow remnant low and be steered westward through 48-60 h, followed by a turn toward the southwest before dissipating by 96 h. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly packed simple consensus models, which is consistent with the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA. Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain low at less than 5 kt for the next 24 h or so, the small cyclone is already moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with slightly cooler water ahead of the system. The ingestion of cooler and drier air, along with the cool SSTs, is expected to weaken the system below depression status by 24 h. Although it is possible that the system could hold on to tropical cyclone status a little longer than currently indicated, especially when the system moves southwestward toward warmer water, moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the small cyclone to dissipate by 96 h. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 18.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.3N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 21/1800Z 18.9N 134.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/0600Z 18.0N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 22/1800Z 16.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/0600Z 13.7N 141.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN