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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072020
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2020
 
The depression continues to move over waters colder than 25 degrees 
Celsius, and its low-level center is exposed to the east of a 
relatively small area of deep convection.  A very recent ASCAT 
pass showed maximum winds of 30 kt, and that remains the 
initial intensity for this advisory.  This estimate is also in 
agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications from TAFB and 
SAB.  The cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should 
cause the remaining deep convection to dissipate soon, which will 
also lead to a gradual decrease in the system's winds.  The official 
forecast therefore shows the depression degenerating into a remnant 
low by 24 hours.  The remnant low is now shown to dissipate by 60 
hours, although global model guidance suggests that this could 
occur even sooner than that.

The depression's initial motion is still northwestward, or 305/9 
kt, although the system appears to be gradually making a turn to 
the left.  As it becomes a shallower system with the loss of deep 
convection, the depression is expected to turn west-northwestward 
soon, and then westward and west-southwestward during the next 
24-36 hours within the low-level trade winds.  The GFS is somewhat 
of a northern outlier on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast 
more closely follows the ECMWF and the various consensus models.  
This puts it very close to the forecast from the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 19.0N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 19.4N 134.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0600Z 18.8N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 18.1N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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