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Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the 
past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast 
quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed 
that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat 
elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also 
showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant 
of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida 
the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season.
 
Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to
track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of
Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night,
and further reformations of the center will be possible until the
system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the
position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in
that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to
move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered
by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the
southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end
of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds
become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in
excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly
high.
 
All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models 
forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h. 
Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet, 
only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed 
by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still 
highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major 
hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one 
and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later 
this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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