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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020
 
GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that 
the depression's low-level center is displaced a little to the 
northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly 
shear.  Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the 
initial intensity is still 30 kt.  The environment around the 
depression is not ideal for much strengthening.  On one hand, the 
system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue.  
However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little 
further, and the environment appears to become more subsident 
within the next 2-3 days.  In addition, the global models do not 
show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much 
strengthening.  SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but 
gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period.  Otherwise, 
the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and 
the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental 
conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours.  The 
updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming 
a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system 
back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day 
period.  It's also entirely possible that the system becomes a 
remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized 
deep convection to be maintained.

The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt.  Low- to mid-level 
ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the 
forecast period, although the system's forward speed is expected to 
slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond.  The new track forecast 
is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows 
the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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