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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020
 
The depression's center had been tucked beneath a cluster of deep 
convection not too long ago, but the convection has begun to wane a 
bit and has been pushed off to the southwest of the center due to 
modest northeasterly shear.   Satellite classifications suggest that 
the cyclone is close to becoming a tropical storm, but there is no 
definitive data to explicitly support that, so the initial 
intensity remains 30 kt.  Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is 
forecast to continue over the system for the next 2-3 days, but the 
thermodynamic environment should be favorable enough to possibly 
allow the depression to just sneak across the tropical storm 
threshold.  The shear begins to abate after about 3 days, but then 
the atmosphere becomes drier and more subsident, which may make it 
difficult to maintain organized deep convection.  The cyclone also 
appears to fail to detach from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, 
which does not favor a strengthening system.  Therefore, no changes 
were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which remains near 
or just above the intensity consensus.  All in all, there is high 
confidence that the cyclone will not strengthen significantly, but 
there is much less confidence in whether it will actually become a 
tropical storm.

The initial motion remains 280/8 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging is 
expected to maintain a general westward heading through day 5, but 
the cyclone could oscillate anywhere between southwest and 
northwest at times.  The system will be slowing down considerably in 
a couple of days, with a forward speed essentially around 2 kt from 
day 2 to day 5.  Except for the GFS, the other models have slowed 
down and shifted a little farther south on this cycle, and the NHC 
forecast follows that trend.  Because of the expected slow motion, 
however, the new forecast ends up being not too far from the 
previous prediction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 13.8N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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