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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
 
The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone.  A small 
burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of 
the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding.  
The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a 
partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest 
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  The depression is 
expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the 
next several days, so no change in strength is called for during 
the forecast period.  It should be noted that if the cyclone were 
to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it 
would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low.

The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while 
embedded in weak steering currents.  A mid-level ridge is forecast 
to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days.  
This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and 
west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the 
period.  This is in line with the latest model consensus.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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