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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
 
At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except 
for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In 
fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the 
center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The 
available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that 
an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the 
initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting 
the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent 
organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate 
sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical 
remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global 
models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and 
therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a 
tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is 
generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5 
day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of 
days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming 
post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or 
later than indicated. 

The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak 
low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone 
over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion 
while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek, 
a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC 
forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus 
aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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