ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has increased and become better organized overnight and this morning. In fact, bands of convection can be seen in both visible and infrared satellite imagery around the northwestern portion of the circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are a consensus 2.0, which supports an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression lies within a very favorable environment for strengthening.  These conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical wind shear are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 48-60 hours. Since the system is still in its organizational stage, intensification is likely to be a little more tempered today, but given these very favorable conditions a period of rapid strengthening is anticipated to begin by Monday and continue into Tuesday. The statistical guidance and dynamical hurricane models are quite bullish on deepening, as are the global models. The SHIPS RI index is showing a 64 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in wind speed over the next 72 hours. Since nearly all of the intensity guidance is calling for a rather rapid increase in strength, this gives relatively high confidence that the system will become a hurricane in a day or two, and likely become a major hurricane within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP correct consensus models. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. A strong deep layer ridge of high pressure over the western United States should steer the cyclone on a steady west-northwestward heading over the next several days. The guidance suggests that there will be some reduction in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest later in the period as an upper-level low/trough retrogrades westward well west of the Baja California peninsula. For the first advisory package, the dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered and the NHC track lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model. Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico, large swell generated by the strengthening system are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico over the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 11.3N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 11.9N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 12.9N 102.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.3N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 15.9N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.5N 109.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.2N 111.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 23.8N 117.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN