ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Data from a recent SSMIS microwave overpass reveals that an eye is trying to form underneath the deep convection of Genevieve, but there is some dry air near the center that may be disrupting the formation of a solid eyewall. Despite that dry air, large bands continue to the southwest and northwest of the center, and the deep convection over the center is expanding in size. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support raising the initial intensity to 65 kt, making Genevieve the third hurricane of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Genevieve jogged a little northwest over the past few hours, but the longer term motion has been west-northwest at 16 kt. The main steering mechanism for the cyclone is a strong mid-level ridge which extends from the southwestern United States southeastward into Mexico. The model guidance varies slightly on the strength and orientation of this ridge over the next few days, which could play a role in how close Genevieve gets to the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula. The GFS is the farthest east, but still keeps the center well offshore, while The UKMET is the westernmost solution. Overall, the guidance has changed little since early this morning, and the official forecast is very near the previous track, which lies near the TVCX/TVCE consensus. The small amount of dry air near the center should get worked out of the circulation shortly, and there is high confidence that the rapid intensification of Genevieve will continue for the next 24-36 h. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a greater than 95 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in strength in the next 24 h, and nearly an 80 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in the next 36 h. The global, regional, and consensus intensity aids all agree that rapid intensification will occur in one form or another during this time frame as well. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus and the IVCN consensus, and is very close to the previous forecast. Large swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico today and will spread northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 14.3N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 107.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.4N 109.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 19.7N 110.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 21.0N 111.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 22.2N 112.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 24.3N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 26.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN