ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 While Genevieve continues to have a distinct eye on satellite images, the inner-core convection has weakened during the past several hours, although there is little evidence of any eyewall replacement cycle starting. The majority of the satellite estimates range from 100 to 110 kt, and a blend of these values gives an initial wind speed of 105 kt. My strong suspicion is that the hurricane has weakened today due to it encountering cooler SSTs from the wake of Hurricane Elida (from last week), and these waters will likely help limit any near-term chance of strengthening. While Genevieve should move north of the wake tomorrow, its slow movement and fairly large size could help to maintain upwelling and cooler waters near the core. In a couple of days, quickly falling SSTs should cause rapid weakening, and Genevieve is forecast to be a non-convective low in 4 days over waters near 23C. The new forecast is lower than the previous one, but it is still above the model consensus at most times before 48 hours. The hurricane has turned to the right tonight, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 325/9 kt. A slightly slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so due to steering from a distant ridge over central Mexico, taking the core of the hurricane near but just west of the southern Baja California peninsula during that time. Similar to the previous cycle, the models have shifted closer to the Baja California Sur coast but still about 60 n mi offshore, and the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should cause Genevieve to turn more toward the west-northwest or northwest, away from the Baja coast. A small eastward trend is noted at long range as well, and the official forecast follows that lead. Key Messages: 1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur. These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and could spread northwestward through Thursday. 2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 19.5N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 20.5N 109.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 21.5N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 22.4N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 23.1N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 24.0N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 25.1N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 27.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0000Z 29.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN