ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Genevieve's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this afternoon with the eye becoming less distinct in visible imagery and a warming of the cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have continued to fall, and the reduction in wind speed has been confirmed by recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes during its mission this afternoon. Somewhat surprisingly, the plane only reported peak flight-level winds of 82 kt and SFMR winds of 69 kt. The latest minimum pressure reported by the aircraft was 974 mb. Since the aircraft only flew a single alpha pattern, it is possible that the strongest winds were not captured. Therefore the initial intensity has been conservatively adjusted to 80 kt. The hurricane will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures over the next day or so, but only gradual weakening expected during this time. Once Genevieve begins to move away from the Baja California peninsula, it will be moving over much cooler waters, and a slightly faster rate of weakening is expected, with the system degenerating into a remnant low by 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance for the first day or two, and then trends closer the intensity consensus aids thereafter. Genevieve is moving north-northwestward or 330/7 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the system is expected to cause the hurricane to turn northwestward tonight, and a northwestward motion should then continue over the next several days. On this track, the center of Genevieve will pass near or just southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula overnight and on Thursday. The recent eastward shift in the guidance did not continue in the 1200 UTC models, so little overall change was required from the previous NHC track foreast. The updated forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope not far form the multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass near or just west of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across southern Baja California Sur through Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight and continuing into Thursday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja California Sur through Thursday. 3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affecting portions of the west-central coast Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 22.2N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 23.1N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 23.9N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 24.8N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 26.0N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 27.1N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 30.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN