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Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Genevieve's overall satellite appearance continues to slowly 
degrade, with a shrinking central dense overcast and dry, stable air 
being drawn into the eastern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak 
data-T numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased 
to 3.5. However, since the CI numbers from these respective analyses 
are 4.5, the initial intensity of 65 kt will be based off a blend of 
those two values. 

Genevieve is forecast to move over gradually cooler waters during 
the next 24 h, so a slow weakening trend is expected to continue 
through that time. Beyond 24 h, the cyclone will cross the 26C SST 
isotherm and reach temperatures below 24C after 48 h. This should 
result in a faster rate of weakening, and the cyclone is expected to 
degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near 
the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. 

Genevieve has made its anticipated turn toward the northwest and has 
accelerated slightly to 10 kt. This general motion is expected to 
continue until the cyclone dissipates later in the forecast 
period. On this track, Genevieve will move parallel to the coast of 
the southern Baja California peninsula today and then begin to move 
away from the peninsula late tonight. The NHC forecast track is 
very little changed from the previous one, with the only notable 
difference being a slightly faster forward speed. This forecast is 
very near the tightly clustered track guidance.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass just west of the Baja 
California peninsula today.  Tropical storm conditions will continue 
over southern Baja California Sur through today, and possibly linger 
into tonight.  
 
2. Continued heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of far 
southern Baja California Sur through today.
 
3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 23.3N 111.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 24.1N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 25.3N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 26.6N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 27.8N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 28.8N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 29.7N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 31.1N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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