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Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020

Satellite imagery, including recently received microwave 
overpasses, shows that Julio has changed little in organization 
during the past several hours, with the small low-level circulation 
center is located near the eastern edge of the small area of 
central convection.  The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on 
continuity and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt.  The latest 
global models runs continue to have trouble resolving Julio, but 
overall the cyclone is embedded in an east-southeasterly flow on 
the southwest side of a mid-level ridge.  A general west- 
northwestward motion should continue with a decrease in forward 
speed until the system dissipates.  The new forecast track again 
leans more toward the ECMWF model, which does the best job of 
resolving Julio.
 
The tropical storm will be affected by moderate to strong easterly 
wind shear for the next day or two, and only sight strengthening is 
likely during that time.  While the shear is forecast to diminish 
after 24-36 h, the cyclone will encounter a drier and more stable 
air mass at that time, which should lead to the dissipation of the 
small system.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the 
previous forecast, and it lies below the intensity consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 16.6N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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