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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Last few visible images showed that the depression's surface 
circulation remains poorly organized with a small swirl of clouds 
displaced just to the north of the deep convective mass.  The 
initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the unchanged 
subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the skilled
consensus models all point to steady intensification through day 3.
Toward the end of the period, the tropical cyclone should encounter 
an inhibiting dry stable air mass and cooler oceanic surface 
temperatures, which should lead to a gradual weakening trend.  The 
NHC intensity forecast shows a peak intensity just under hurricane 
strength on Wednesday and is just below the HCCA intensity 
consensus and close to the Decay SHIPS. 

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward at 6 kt, 
and this motion is predicted to continue through Wednesday.  The 
subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone is forecast to 
build farther westward over the tropical eastern Pacific which 
should induce a westward turn toward the end of the week.  The NHC 
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and based on 
the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 18.9N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 19.6N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 20.3N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 20.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 20.7N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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