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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Lowell continues to be affected by north-northeasterly shear, and 
the center is estimated to be located near the north-northeastern  
edge of the main convective mass.  Banding features are not well 
defined at this time.  The intensity estimate remains near 40 kt in 
agreement with recent scatterometer data.  The storm should move 
over marginally warm waters during the next several days, with some 
decrease in shear.  Therefore the official forecast shows gradual 
strengthening.  This is somewhat above the latest intensity model 
consensus.

The cyclone is estimated to be moving at around 285/11 which is 
close to the climatological mean.  The track forecast appears to be 
quite straightforward.  Lowell should move on a west-northwestward 
to westward path along the southern side of a subtropical ridge for 
the next several days, and the NHC track prediction lies between 
the model consensus and the previous official forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 18.0N 115.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 18.6N 117.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 19.3N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 19.8N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 20.3N 125.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 20.2N 129.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 20.3N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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