ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Lowell's satellite appearance has improved slightly over the past several hours, with the mass of deep convection becoming a little more symmetrical. However, the center still appears to be near the northeastern edge of this convection. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the cyclone has strengthened, and the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. The north-northeasterly shear is expected to persist for the next few days, and the cyclone is only expected to remain over waters warmer than 26 degrees C for the 24-36 h. Therefore, only some slow strengthening is expected during the next day or so. At around 72 h, Lowell is expected to begin moving over waters of around 25 degrees C while entering a drier and more stable airmass. These conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken. Late in the forecast period, model guidance suggests that Lowell will encounter strong westerly wind shear. There is a possibility that the cyclone could lose its deep convection once that shear sets in, and although the latest advisory does not indicate it, Lowell could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the corrected consensus HCCA. The storm is estimated to be moving 290/11 kt, on the southern side of a subtropical ridge. This motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west as the ridge changes its orientation slightly. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 24 h and is only a little north of it thereafter due to a shift in the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 18.4N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 20.1N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 20.4N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 20.5N 125.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 20.6N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 20.6N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.6N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN