ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Recent microwave satellite imagery has been extremely helpful in diagnosing the structure of Lowell, as well as locating the center of the tropical storm. The imagery indicates the the center is located to the north of the bursting area of convection, and that the overall structure has not changed much since this afternoon. A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 40 kt. Although the shear associated with the upper-tropospheric flow is low, there appears to be some stronger shear in a layer beneath that level which is causing the displacement of the convection to the south of the low-level center. Given the current structure, only slight strengthening is predicted over the next 24 hours, and shortly after that time Lowell will be moving near an SST gradient and into an area of less favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, little change in strength is shown between 24-60 h, but gradual weakening should begin after that time when Lowell moves over cooler waters and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear. With Lowell moving along the SST gradient for the next several days, a track north of the official forecast could result in both a faster rate of weakening, and the system becoming post-tropical much sooner than indicated below, but a track farther south could result in slightly more intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the SHIPS guidance and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. Lowell is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A west-northwestward motion is expected, to the southwest of a subtropical ridge near Baja California. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of Lowell over the next couple of days which should impart a westward turn by late Wednesday, with a general westward heading continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. Although there is little cross-track spread in the guidance models, there are significant speed differences (along-track spread) with the ECMWF model much faster than the GFS. The NHC track is slightly faster than the previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus aids and the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 19.4N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 20.4N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 20.7N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 20.9N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 21.0N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 21.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN