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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

Lowell is now producing a small band of deep convection in the 
southeastern semicircle, but as in the previous advisory it is 
otherwise largely a low-level cloud swirl.  Satellite intensity 
estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, so the initial 
intensity is lowered to 35 kt.  The cyclone is over cool sea 
surface temperatures of 24C, and it should encounter even cooler 
waters during the next day or two.  Between this, increasing 
westerly shear, and entrainment of stable air, Lowell should 
degenerate to a remnant low between 24-36 h, if not sooner.  The 
global models indicate that the remnant low is likely to survive 
through 120 h, and the intensity forecast follows this guidance. 

The initial motion is now westward or 275/10 kt.  A generally 
westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for 
the next several days as Lowell or its remnants are steered by 
easterly flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge.  The track 
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is 
changed little from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 21.8N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 21.9N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 21.8N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 21.6N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 21.5N 136.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 21.4N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z 21.4N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z 21.5N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0000Z 22.5N 149.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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