ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 The tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized, with a Central Dense Overcast feature developing near/over the estimated center. The system is experiencing moderate east-northeasterly shear which is currently restricting upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the system. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB indicate that the cyclone's maximum winds are near 30 kt. The dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will soon diminish, and the atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite conducive for strengthening during the next few days. The official forecast shows steady intensification with the system becoming a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane within 72 hours. This is a little below the latest intensity model consensus, which suggests that that the cyclone could be near major hurricane status in about 72 hours. The center is not easy to locate at this time, so the initial motion estimate of 280/9 kt is more uncertain than usual. A strengthening subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain a westward or west-northwestward motion at an increased forward speed for the next 72 hours or so. In 4-5 days, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 130W longitude should cause the system to turn toward the northwest. The official track forecast is a little north and northeast of the latest model consensus. The dynamical guidance shows an expanding wind field with the tropical cyclone, and the official wind radii forecasts, especially beyond 2 days, are in close agreement with the consensus wind radii forecast technique, RVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 13.3N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.4N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 14.7N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 15.4N 121.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 16.4N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN