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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020
 
Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops 
surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by 
a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest 
Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to 
115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength. 
The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in 
agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 
SAB.

The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile 
and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much 
longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should 
begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the 
cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by 
Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by 
vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative 
humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than 
25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to 
cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening 
possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in 
good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and 
indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday 
night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the 
forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical 
cyclone devoid of deep convection.
 
Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to 
do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the 
southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to 
expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to 
turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast 
period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to 
begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed 
from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus 
HCCA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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