ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020
 
Marie is making one last grasp at holding on to tropical cyclone
status. Convection has both deepened and moved closer to the center
of the cyclone since the last advisory. Although this convection is
still displaced well to the north of Marie's center, it appears to
be sufficient to maintain advisories for the moment. The initial
intensity of 40 kt is based on earlier ASCAT data, assuming gradual
weakening since then. This assessment may be generous, but we will
likely get more scatterometer data before the next advisory.
 
Despite its recent marginal convective resurgence, Marie is still 
moving over cold SSTs and through a hostile environment. It is 
therefore forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h. The 
aforementioned ASCAT data showed Marie was still producing a wide 
area of 35 kt or greater winds, and it will take a little while for 
the large circulation to spin down. Most of the models indicate that 
Marie will degenerate into a trough of low pressure in about 4 days, 
and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 21.4N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
NNNN