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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020
 
Intermittent bursts of deep convection are maintaining the 
circulation of Norbert. First-light visible satellite imagery shows 
the latest burst over the northeastern potion of the cyclone with a 
partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being 
held at 25 kt, and is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as data from an 
earlier ASCAT overpass.
 
The environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much 
over the next few days, with perhaps some slight increase in the 
atmospheric moisture in about 24 h. Therefore, only minor 
fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 
72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter 
a more stable atmosphere, which should limit convection and cause 
Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a 
remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible 
that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to 
be declared a remnant low before that time.
 
Norbert has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory, and 
very little motion is expected today due to a lack of steering 
currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly build to the 
northeast of the cyclone Friday through the weekend, which should 
cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest.  By 
late in the forecast period, the forecast track becomes quite 
uncertain, as there are now indications that whatever is left of 
Norbert may interact with a disturbance to its west. The latest NHC 
track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, 
but is left of that track beyond 72 h due to a shift in the 
consensus guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 13.2N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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