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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020
 
Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near 
the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some 
easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data 
suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming 
elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new 
scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 
25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will 
open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence 
Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate 
into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official 
forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before 
showing dissipation by 60 h.
 
Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to 
the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert 
slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the 
track model consensus guidance. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
 
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