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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the 
west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized 
deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory.  
Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT 
pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated 
intensity is now 25 kt.  Further weakening is expected due to cool 
waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not 
return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight.  
Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into 
a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja 
California peninsula in about 24 hours.

Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation 
is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to 
its southwest as much as it was earlier today.  The current motion 
is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected 
to slow down further until the time it dissipates.  The updated NHC 
track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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