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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020
 
Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to 
southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection 
near the center along with some banding features well displaced to 
the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed 
little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the 
northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak 
estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt.  
 
Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able 
to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample 
atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning, 
the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical 
wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday, 
the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment. 
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken, 
with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3 
days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the 
various intensity guidance models.
 
Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to 
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in 
forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the 
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over 
southern Texas and northern Mexico.  As Odalys weakens later this 
week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the 
weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level 
northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and 
the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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