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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A 
well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible 
satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection. 
Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT 
passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band 
north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling, 
and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the 
initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt. 
The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The 
storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated 
between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level 
trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely 
generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid 
level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h, 
resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then 
west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level 
easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement 
on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys 
becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the 
official forecast track.

Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it 
is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the 
southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35 
kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very 
dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any 
remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow 
remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 
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