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Tropical Depression Polo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020
 
Occasional bursts of deep convection have been developing to the 
east and northeast of Polo's center since yesterday evening, but 
none have lasted for more than about an hour or two.  ASCAT-C data 
received after the scatterometer pass noted in the previous advisory 
did not explicitly show tropical-storm-force winds, suggesting that 
Polo continues to weaken, and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from 
TAFB and SAB are 2.0.  For these reasons, Polo is now assumed to be 
a 30-kt tropical depression.  Polo has not maintained enough 
organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone for the 
last 12 to 15 hours, and if sustained convection does not redevelop 
soon, the system will likely be declared a remnant low later this 
afternoon.  The remnant low is expected to continue weakening due to 
westerly shear, only marginally warm waters, and dry air, and it is 
expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner.

Polo is being steered westward (275/10 kt) to the south of a low- to 
mid-level ridge.  Once Polo becomes a remnant low, the shallow 
circulation should take on a south-of-due-west motion in about 24 
hours, continuing that trajectory until it dissipates.  This 
pattern is shown by nearly all the reliable track models, and the 
NHC forecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 17.1N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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