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Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022
 
Madeline is on a gradual decline.  The deep convection that is 
confined to the west of the cyclone's low-level center is slowly 
decaying in the presence of 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear and 
marginal SSTs of 26 degrees C.  The latest Dvorak T-numbers from 
TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased from 6 h ago, and a 
blend of their CI values suggest that the initial intensity has 
decreased to 45 kt.
 
Madeline continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt.  An 
ongoing west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day 
or so while the storm remains steered by a deep-layer ridge 
centered over southern Texas.  After that time, a turn to the west 
is expected when the system becomes shallow and moves within the 
low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is little changed 
from the previous one and is near the various multi-model consensus 
tracks. 
 
The east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while Madeline 
moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs.  Therefore 
steady weakening is expected, and the cyclone is expected to 
degenerate into post-tropical remnant low, devoid of persistent 
organized deep convection, by early Wednesday.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast was nudged slightly lower through 48 h due to the 
decrease in the initial intensity, but remains slightly higher than 
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 21.0N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 21.1N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 21.4N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 21.7N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1200Z 21.7N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z 21.6N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 21.3N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z 21.1N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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