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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023
 
Fernanda's rapid weakening continues, and there is little if any 
deep convection remaining in association with the system.  Given the 
lack of convection, it is difficult to estimate the current 
intensity of the cyclone via the Dvorak satellite technique.  
However assuming a fairly rapid spin down, the current intensity is 
set to 55 kt for this advisory, with a significant amount of 
uncertainty.

The storm has turned a little to the left and the current motion is 
just slightly south of due west, or 260/13 kt.  The steering pattern 
is expected to be fairly straightforward with a mid-level ridge 
established the north of the cyclone.  This should result in a 
continued westward motion for the next few days.  The official track 
forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus 
guidance.

Fernanda is crossing the SST gradient and should be moving over 
progressively cooler waters.  Therefore, the system is not likely to 
regenerate sustained deep convection, and continued rapid weakening 
is likely. The cyclone should drop below tropical storm strength 
tomorrow and weaken to dissipation in 72 hours if not sooner.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 17.1N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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