* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOUR 07/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 53 62 68 72 75 80 81 81 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 53 50 52 56 59 63 62 63 SHEAR (KTS) 4 8 9 8 5 14 7 16 10 12 5 5 16 SHEAR DIR 8 338 325 341 335 10 351 6 9 11 49 311 217 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.2 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 157 157 155 152 152 155 155 162 160 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 500-300 MB RH 80 77 77 77 78 74 68 71 66 66 64 55 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 -4 0 0 5 850 MB VORT 66 59 64 66 77 81 88 70 66 44 84 88 135 LAND (KM) 177 244 336 399 341 202 -24 20 61 105 49 42 153 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 16.5 18.3 20.1 21.7 23.2 24.8 26.5 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 63.8 65.2 66.4 67.5 69.7 71.7 74.0 76.2 78.5 80.5 82.5 84.3 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 74 67 69 67 9999 69 61 80 66 9 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 596 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 111 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 32. 40. 45. 50. 54. 58. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 19. 28. 37. 43. 47. 50. 55. 56. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOUR 7/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 4.92 Prob of RI= 34.2% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)