* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOUR 07/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 69 77 84 88 92 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 69 77 84 58 60 61 60 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 10 5 10 12 6 10 4 9 6 3 11 SHEAR DIR 331 326 332 318 359 51 61 52 1 63 315 336 307 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 154 152 151 151 155 162 165 164 159 152 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 500-300 MB RH 78 78 78 80 73 66 62 60 60 66 62 59 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 -5 850 MB VORT 62 63 65 75 87 117 104 84 71 70 85 89 73 LAND (KM) 188 278 315 312 331 166 71 11 37 -31 45 129 104 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.3 15.1 16.6 18.1 19.7 21.2 22.6 23.6 24.9 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 65.2 66.7 68.2 69.7 72.8 75.6 77.6 79.0 80.2 81.4 82.4 83.2 HEAT CONTENT 43 66 71 66 61 69 84 77 92 9999 83 35 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 546 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 73 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 27. 37. 45. 52. 57. 61. 63. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 39. 47. 54. 58. 62. 63. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOUR 7/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.5 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 4.56 Prob of RI= 20.9% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)