* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FOUR 07/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 51 62 72 81 87 92 96 97 97 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 51 62 72 81 87 73 77 79 78 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 5 10 9 5 10 7 7 4 2 6 4 SHEAR DIR 331 330 349 357 17 74 35 67 28 137 323 209 280 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 149 149 152 157 162 165 160 155 151 149 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 8 500-300 MB RH 80 76 78 74 68 62 61 60 60 65 61 59 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT 58 68 85 88 104 115 81 83 58 76 75 90 89 LAND (KM) 268 269 235 289 226 85 32 125 69 -1 84 219 302 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.7 15.6 17.5 18.6 19.9 21.3 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 67.3 68.7 70.3 71.8 74.6 76.9 78.9 80.6 82.1 83.4 84.4 85.1 HEAT CONTENT 69 75 57 57 70 84 82 104 109 90 92 78 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 38. 47. 54. 59. 63. 67. 67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 15. 21. 32. 42. 51. 57. 62. 66. 67. 67. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOUR 7/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 23.1% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)