* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 51 57 69 78 86 92 96 99 98 97 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 51 57 69 78 86 92 90 93 93 92 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 10 9 9 3 7 3 2 10 8 16 13 SHEAR DIR 325 339 331 358 38 351 41 338 97 247 222 247 212 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 149 151 155 162 165 162 159 154 151 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 500-300 MB RH 73 77 70 67 63 61 58 55 59 56 58 51 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 -3 0 850 MB VORT 62 66 68 79 94 80 54 51 52 73 92 91 118 LAND (KM) 286 287 287 187 158 76 43 90 22 30 160 336 334 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.7 18.2 19.7 21.0 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.3 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 69.0 70.4 71.8 73.1 75.6 78.1 80.4 82.1 83.4 84.2 85.5 87.1 HEAT CONTENT 76 57 63 71 70 83 87 110 100 108 102 27 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 659 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 73 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 38. 46. 53. 57. 61. 63. 62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 22. 34. 43. 51. 57. 61. 64. 63. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 4.81 Prob of RI= 29.8% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)