* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 71 81 91 99 105 107 108 105 101 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 71 81 91 99 105 100 101 98 95 SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 9 8 1 7 2 6 4 8 13 16 13 SHEAR DIR 331 318 332 11 118 349 357 360 261 314 241 274 268 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 151 152 157 164 165 164 159 152 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.3 -51.8 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 11 10 11 9 9 500-300 MB RH 76 67 61 59 59 59 57 59 63 65 67 66 72 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 0 1 2 4 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 3 850 MB VORT 64 67 72 86 89 61 56 55 73 77 95 85 92 LAND (KM) 293 310 178 155 69 63 99 77 7 13 207 345 329 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.8 20.3 21.3 22.1 23.0 24.4 25.6 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 70.0 71.5 72.8 74.0 76.5 79.1 80.8 81.9 83.1 84.6 85.6 86.1 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 72 70 83 75 97 109 100 107 86 16 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 648 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 94 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 33. 42. 50. 56. 58. 60. 59. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 19. 26. 36. 46. 54. 60. 62. 63. 60. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.2 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 24.0% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)