* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 67 72 82 90 98 103 106 106 104 100 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 67 72 82 90 98 103 102 102 99 96 SHEAR (KTS) 7 11 9 5 11 6 9 6 10 6 9 5 7 SHEAR DIR 308 322 354 341 349 11 342 358 321 296 318 347 311 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 151 154 159 164 165 160 155 151 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -49.9 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 500-300 MB RH 69 62 63 58 61 63 67 68 66 72 72 71 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 3 3 0 850 MB VORT 71 81 90 97 96 80 73 61 74 84 76 87 65 LAND (KM) 290 236 179 106 76 76 128 58 16 94 238 337 299 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.8 19.1 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.6 24.7 26.0 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 71.1 72.4 73.7 75.0 77.4 79.6 81.4 82.8 83.8 84.6 85.7 86.8 HEAT CONTENT 56 67 68 78 90 82 101 106 89 103 72 15 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 78 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 31. 39. 45. 50. 53. 54. 53. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 22. 32. 40. 48. 53. 56. 56. 54. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.1% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)