* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 80 90 98 105 110 112 108 104 97 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 80 90 98 105 104 106 102 97 90 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 6 11 11 4 10 3 5 6 14 13 14 SHEAR DIR 324 355 360 346 359 279 344 315 324 248 264 249 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 154 155 162 165 160 157 149 148 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -50.5 -51.2 -49.5 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 12 10 11 8 9 6 500-300 MB RH 65 66 61 63 64 62 60 63 64 65 66 69 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 3 5 1 1 0 0 -2 3 10 7 850 MB VORT 67 77 78 80 69 66 40 67 65 89 61 80 48 LAND (KM) 271 189 113 78 30 106 77 16 87 301 227 119 5 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.6 21.3 22.5 23.5 25.2 27.7 29.4 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 70.9 72.3 73.6 74.9 76.2 78.7 81.1 82.8 83.9 84.9 85.9 86.6 87.1 HEAT CONTENT 64 69 77 89 77 97 109 89 107 44 31 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 552 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 31. 38. 45. 48. 50. 47. 44. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 30. 38. 45. 50. 52. 48. 44. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 7.1 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 3.69 Prob of RI= 8.0% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)