* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 73 78 87 94 100 103 103 101 96 90 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 73 78 87 94 88 99 99 97 92 63 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 14 11 9 10 7 10 10 12 13 17 20 SHEAR DIR 350 354 348 348 346 348 2 321 328 303 303 295 306 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 152 155 157 164 165 160 154 148 146 146 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 7 500-300 MB RH 70 68 72 71 70 68 67 66 74 69 74 68 69 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 11 15 850 MB VORT 87 96 96 84 76 63 54 66 75 66 99 70 74 LAND (KM) 217 190 117 50 50 123 58 -13 156 268 200 68 -72 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.0 18.8 20.4 21.5 22.7 24.1 25.9 27.9 29.6 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 73.2 74.4 75.8 77.1 79.5 81.4 83.0 84.1 84.9 85.3 86.1 87.1 HEAT CONTENT 67 66 82 83 81 99 106 97 101 25 24 20 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 534 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 84 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 40. 37. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 34. 40. 43. 43. 41. 36. 30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 92.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.60 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.5% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)