* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 87 92 97 103 107 107 104 99 93 87 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 87 92 97 103 101 100 97 93 86 51 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 14 13 13 17 10 11 12 12 14 13 13 SHEAR DIR 356 343 329 324 322 348 327 303 294 291 243 284 291 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 154 157 159 165 164 157 151 149 148 148 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.6 -49.6 -49.8 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 13 13 12 11 12 10 10 8 8 5 7 500-300 MB RH 68 69 69 66 63 67 65 67 67 71 71 70 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 3 2 3 0 3 0 3 7 11 12 8 1 850 MB VORT 97 95 86 72 69 48 59 52 70 74 90 80 66 LAND (KM) 200 120 97 14 69 113 45 48 246 333 191 35 -100 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.7 26.4 28.4 30.1 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 74.1 75.3 76.5 77.7 80.1 82.2 83.7 84.8 85.8 86.7 87.5 88.0 HEAT CONTENT 65 79 88 76 83 107 105 108 69 26 34 26 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 612 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 76 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 31. 28. 23. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 33. 37. 37. 34. 29. 23. 17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 83.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 5.17 Prob of RI= 42.3% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)