* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 91 95 104 110 113 113 111 106 98 89 V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 91 95 104 96 109 108 106 101 71 41 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 13 12 12 6 9 7 12 4 10 8 10 SHEAR DIR 352 326 328 328 325 335 321 328 292 190 237 257 269 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 155 159 162 165 160 154 149 149 148 145 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -49.9 -50.0 -48.5 -48.6 -48.4 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 9 6 7 6 500-300 MB RH 73 67 66 63 63 62 60 66 63 64 58 57 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 6 4 0 1 6 0 0 -1 8 -3 850 MB VORT 107 98 83 78 71 66 57 71 71 93 64 64 39 LAND (KM) 147 107 0 55 115 88 0 160 333 294 125 -44 -207 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.7 21.2 22.7 24.1 25.5 27.2 29.3 31.1 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 74.1 75.3 76.4 77.6 78.8 81.0 82.8 84.2 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.0 88.6 HEAT CONTENT 76 89 77 83 98 110 92 101 18 42 29 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 556 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. 9. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 18. 25. 31. 34. 34. 34. 31. 24. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 16. 21. 29. 35. 38. 38. 36. 31. 23. 14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.49 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 5.02 Prob of RI= 37.5% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)