* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 97 100 104 111 113 111 107 101 91 79 66 V (KT) LAND 90 94 97 100 104 84 94 92 88 66 39 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 11 10 9 5 6 17 13 24 23 28 18 SHEAR DIR 328 335 335 327 322 254 282 244 221 215 233 227 220 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 25.0 22.0 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 160 164 165 160 149 148 148 146 110 92 83 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -50.8 -50.6 -49.7 -50.0 -48.8 -49.6 -49.2 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 7 9 3 8 1 500-300 MB RH 69 66 62 70 66 65 63 58 55 53 47 39 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 2 8 7 4 -1 -2 -2 8 -9 6 11 16 850 MB VORT 74 61 61 52 40 52 45 78 68 83 55 47 39 LAND (KM) 94 39 44 76 57 -20 241 293 168 -38 -327 -566 -757 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.8 24.9 26.9 28.8 31.0 33.6 35.6 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 76.2 77.4 78.7 80.0 82.3 84.1 85.6 86.8 87.8 88.6 89.7 90.7 HEAT CONTENT 90 77 81 91 107 9999 63 33 31 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 82 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 7. 5. -1. -10. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 23. 22. 18. 13. 3. -10. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. 23. 21. 17. 11. 1. -11. -24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 70.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 22.8% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)