* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 101 104 108 113 115 112 107 99 88 74 62 V (KT) LAND 95 99 99 102 77 76 77 75 70 42 32 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 15 11 6 7 6 12 19 23 26 26 26 SHEAR DIR 331 335 329 340 360 275 254 243 195 233 227 255 250 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.0 22.8 19.9 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 164 165 164 155 146 146 146 129 96 84 80 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.4 -49.4 -49.7 -50.0 -50.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 13 11 11 9 9 6 7 3 9 500-300 MB RH 65 62 68 64 66 62 60 53 57 51 45 42 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 14 4 0 0 -1 0 -8 -7 8 25 -10 850 MB VORT 58 55 46 30 30 48 48 47 75 34 31 22 51 LAND (KM) 54 16 33 12 -44 99 204 178 52 -178 -510 -741 -866 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.6 22.4 23.9 26.1 28.1 30.0 32.3 35.2 37.2 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.1 77.4 78.6 79.8 80.9 82.7 84.3 85.6 86.7 87.9 89.1 89.8 90.1 HEAT CONTENT 73 81 82 102 9999 69 28 26 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 97 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 0. -8. -19. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 21. 20. 15. 6. -5. -19. -32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 20. 17. 13. 4. -7. -21. -33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 67.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.36 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 4.68 Prob of RI= 24.4% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)