* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 120 121 123 120 118 113 102 88 74 58 47 V (KT) LAND 115 119 120 94 76 81 79 73 53 35 29 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 13 18 15 5 5 10 10 13 26 29 31 28 33 SHEAR DIR 325 329 327 2 272 298 246 252 224 241 243 269 268 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.1 25.5 22.8 21.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 164 165 165 160 151 145 146 143 114 96 91 91 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -50.1 -50.8 -49.8 -49.9 -49.3 -50.1 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 13 13 14 12 12 8 10 3 9 2 9 500-300 MB RH 63 67 59 61 60 58 61 62 62 62 50 49 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 15 7 1 0 0 0 3 11 10 15 0 14 850 MB VORT 61 54 32 26 34 23 30 30 50 21 -7 -5 35 LAND (KM) 44 47 33 -28 -2 172 178 112 -70 -324 -600 -757 -839 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.1 25.0 26.8 28.7 31.1 33.6 36.1 37.5 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 78.2 79.2 80.3 81.3 83.1 84.3 85.6 86.8 87.6 87.8 87.5 86.9 HEAT CONTENT 84 79 87 9999 88 32 24 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 653 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 64 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 5. -1. -7. -16. -28. -40. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 6. 1. -10. -25. -39. -55. -67. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 5. 6. 8. 5. 3. -2. -13. -27. -41. -57. -68. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 47.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.19 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 3.96 Prob of RI= 11.3% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)