* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/08/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 117 118 118 116 112 107 97 86 72 59 48 V (KT) LAND 115 116 94 75 81 79 75 70 47 33 29 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 18 13 7 7 13 7 15 19 27 21 25 23 21 SHEAR DIR 325 313 350 290 304 257 245 205 233 233 252 247 275 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.3 28.3 28.4 27.8 24.8 21.8 21.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 160 155 146 146 148 139 109 91 91 94 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -49.8 -49.9 -48.9 -49.2 -49.6 -49.5 -50.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 6 7 3 8 4 500-300 MB RH 66 58 64 61 57 57 54 57 55 55 47 45 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 -7 -2 13 9 27 850 MB VORT 57 42 40 44 43 43 43 71 27 36 -8 8 25 LAND (KM) 59 38 -15 -16 87 207 211 108 -93 -367 -688 -849 -784 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.9 25.8 27.8 29.5 31.5 34.0 36.9 38.3 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.4 80.4 81.4 82.4 84.1 85.4 86.6 87.7 88.2 88.0 87.0 85.3 HEAT CONTENT 85 92 108 86 69 29 25 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 654 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 79 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. -2. -8. -18. -30. -43. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 3. -2. -14. -26. -41. -55. -66. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -18. -29. -43. -56. -67. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/08/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 46.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.18 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 4.18 Prob of RI= 13.9% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)