* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 121 121 120 118 113 105 93 79 62 51 42 V (KT) LAND 120 120 91 93 93 90 85 78 44 32 29 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 15 10 4 9 9 9 9 17 17 26 25 23 19 SHEAR DIR 327 14 332 289 317 232 248 206 229 233 243 253 295 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.3 26.7 23.1 19.8 20.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 162 157 152 146 148 146 126 98 84 84 92 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -49.9 -50.7 -49.7 -50.1 -49.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 15 13 13 13 9 10 5 10 3 11 4 500-300 MB RH 62 62 61 62 60 54 57 56 55 50 43 46 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 -2 -2 -1 3 0 -1 -3 -5 10 19 15 -1 850 MB VORT 36 33 38 49 32 48 24 35 12 4 -5 22 44 LAND (KM) 72 27 -9 62 186 263 169 37 -194 -479 -774 -922 -820 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.5 26.5 28.3 30.1 32.4 34.9 37.6 39.0 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.6 81.7 82.7 83.6 85.1 86.1 87.2 88.5 89.2 89.2 87.7 84.9 HEAT CONTENT 95 108 95 78 51 26 28 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 670 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 0. -7. -16. -28. -42. -56. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -9. -22. -38. -55. -68. -78. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -15. -27. -41. -58. -69. -78. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 40.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.12 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.50 Prob of RI= 19.4% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)