* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 124 123 121 112 107 98 84 68 54 43 36 V (KT) LAND 125 99 106 105 103 94 89 57 36 30 28 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 12 7 11 19 20 23 18 20 23 30 23 SHEAR DIR 318 295 265 286 213 247 209 226 222 241 264 296 308 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 27.7 24.5 21.8 20.5 21.5 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 160 155 151 148 146 148 138 106 91 86 90 94 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.6 -50.3 -50.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 12 10 10 5 7 3 8 5 10 500-300 MB RH 61 63 63 63 58 56 57 56 55 46 47 50 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 -1 2 2 12 -4 13 850 MB VORT 36 47 63 49 52 31 62 24 26 -11 24 48 100 LAND (KM) -11 -27 89 211 230 222 107 -101 -370 -615 -822 -894 -681 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.0 23.8 24.8 25.7 27.7 29.5 31.6 34.0 36.2 38.1 39.3 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 81.7 82.7 83.5 84.3 85.5 86.7 87.8 88.6 88.8 88.1 86.2 83.2 HEAT CONTENT 108 9999 73 40 29 27 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -11. -23. -38. -52. -65. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -11. -12. -10. -8. -6. -3. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. -4. -11. -21. -36. -54. -68. -81. -89. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -13. -18. -27. -41. -57. -71. -82. -89. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.03 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)