* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * DENNIS 07/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 95 97 97 97 90 79 68 54 45 38 35 V (KT) LAND 100 100 100 101 102 102 81 45 33 29 28 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 8 10 16 11 26 24 32 21 25 22 23 SHEAR DIR 308 288 290 211 227 239 202 222 222 237 251 291 293 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 25.5 21.8 19.8 19.5 21.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 152 148 146 148 146 114 91 84 83 91 95 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.5 -49.6 -50.4 -49.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 14 13 9 11 3 9 2 11 4 10 500-300 MB RH 63 64 62 60 60 57 55 50 42 37 38 42 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 -4 0 4 -4 17 25 11 7 19 6 850 MB VORT 46 54 42 55 48 41 61 36 11 15 31 38 80 LAND (KM) -21 52 162 253 250 145 -28 -283 -575 -750 -806 -872 -658 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.3 26.3 28.5 30.7 33.2 35.6 37.2 37.9 38.6 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.6 83.5 84.2 84.9 86.0 87.2 88.6 90.0 90.2 89.1 86.6 83.0 HEAT CONTENT 9999 79 60 36 26 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 697 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 84 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -5. -15. -27. -38. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. -7. -6. -4. -2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -10. -21. -32. -46. -55. -62. -65. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -10. -21. -32. -46. -55. -62. -65. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -30.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 52.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.23 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 3.77 Prob of RI= 8.9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)