* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/09/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 78 77 77 76 71 61 51 42 34 30 26 V (KT) LAND 85 79 78 77 77 76 49 34 29 28 28 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 19 15 11 18 19 23 26 24 24 21 29 22 29 SHEAR DIR 287 281 236 226 236 209 220 201 231 237 286 306 318 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.5 23.9 21.0 19.6 20.8 22.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 149 146 148 148 135 102 88 83 87 92 94 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.0 -48.7 -49.4 -49.6 -50.0 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 13 11 10 6 7 2 7 4 10 6 500-300 MB RH 65 64 62 60 58 61 52 51 44 44 42 40 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 5 12 10 25 20 7 9 -3 7 -5 850 MB VORT 45 34 57 67 45 79 43 52 -13 29 14 55 51 LAND (KM) 40 153 255 247 274 107 -133 -410 -644 -771 -811 -838 -781 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.3 25.1 26.2 27.2 29.5 31.9 34.2 36.2 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.3 84.1 84.8 85.5 86.7 88.1 89.4 90.2 89.7 87.9 86.2 84.6 HEAT CONTENT 79 60 41 27 30 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 674 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 79 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. -3. -12. -21. -29. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -11. -8. -6. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -13. -23. -33. -42. -49. -53. -58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -14. -24. -34. -43. -51. -55. -59. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/09/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -30.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 3.62 Prob of RI= 7.2% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)