* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * DENNIS 07/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 78 79 80 79 71 61 49 41 35 31 26 V (KT) LAND 80 77 78 79 80 62 38 30 28 28 28 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 14 6 10 16 11 25 22 24 17 20 14 19 18 SHEAR DIR 298 238 211 228 206 210 209 222 226 253 280 278 323 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 24.5 22.0 20.8 19.6 18.7 21.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 146 148 148 145 106 92 87 83 80 88 96 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -49.4 -49.9 -48.7 -49.3 -49.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 12 10 10 3 8 2 10 3 10 2 500-300 MB RH 64 63 64 57 57 57 53 46 39 43 35 41 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 4 1 4 7 2 4 11 27 -2 -15 850 MB VORT 19 48 60 29 37 55 17 12 7 38 62 80 55 LAND (KM) 160 249 256 246 162 -45 -362 -561 -665 -764 -883 -920 -682 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.6 31.1 33.8 35.5 36.4 37.4 38.6 39.1 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.2 85.0 85.8 86.5 87.9 89.2 89.9 90.2 89.9 89.1 86.8 83.3 HEAT CONTENT 59 34 27 31 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 647 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 83 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. -7. -16. -24. -32. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -6. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -10. -20. -30. -37. -44. -47. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -9. -19. -30. -39. -45. -49. -54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) DENNIS 7/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.05 Prob of RI= 12.4% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)